Beware of "Grey Rhino" Power Lithium Battery Production Expansion
De janeiro a novembro, o volume de vendas de veículos de energia nova em meu país atingiu 2,99 milhões, um-aumento-ano a ano de 166,8%. Desde o primeiro de novembro, a taxa de penetração no mercado de veículos de energia nova atingiu 12,7%. Além disso, como a taxa de penetração de veículos de energia nova ultrapassa o ponto crítico de 10%, as vendas de veículos de energia nova estão quebrando novos recordes mês a mês, e a taxa de penetração deverá ultrapassar 20% em 2022.
The demand for power lithium-ion batteries on the vehicle side is also constantly jumping. Under the new development pattern, battery companies aimed at market trends and started a new wave of "capacity expansion". Ningde era, the output is expected to reach 320GWh by the end of 2022, and the output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh; BYD, the planned output in 2025 will exceed 600GWh; AVIC Lithium Power, the planned output in 2025 is 500GWh, and the output in 2030 is 1TWh...
So, how do you view the expansion of power lithium-ion battery production? From December 14th to 15th, "The Sixth International Summit on Power Li-ion Battery Application (CBIS2021)" was held in Ganzhou, Jiangxi. Companies and institutions from upstream and downstream of the entire vehicle, power lithium-ion battery, materials, equipment and other industrial chains have conducted in-depth discussions on this topic.
A expansão da produção de baterias de-íon de lítio está se tornando uma tendência
Desde 2021, as duas palavras-chave para o desenvolvimento de baterias de energia de lítio-são: aumento de preços e expansão da produção.
According to public information, as my country's leading power lithium-ion battery company CATL, the planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh, and the output planning area involves Fujian Ningde, Sichuan, Qinghai, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanghai and other places. BYD's production expansion speed is not as fast as that of CATL. According to preliminary statistics, BYD's planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 600GWh, involving Guangdong, Qinghai, Chongqing, Hunan, Xi'an, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and other provinces and cities. At present, AVIC Lithium Battery, which ranks third in the installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries, also has a production plan of 500GWh in 2025. Yiwei Lithium Energy will build a production capacity of 200GWh in 2023. Guoxuan Hi-Tech's production plan in 2025 is 300GWh...According to the incomplete statistics of batteries in my country, since the beginning of this year, the newly planned output of domestic and foreign top battery companies has approached 2500GWh.
Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the my country Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, emphasized that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly this year. This shows that with the continuous maturity of power lithium-ion battery technology, consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles has increased significantly.
A julgar pela capacidade instalada mais recente, os dados da Power Li{0}}Ion Battery Application Branch mostram que, de janeiro a novembro deste ano, a capacidade instalada de baterias de potência de lítio-íon no mercado chinês foi de cerca de 128,3 GWh, um aumento de 153,1% ano-sobre-ano, e a capacidade instalada anual deverá ficar próxima a 150GWh. Além disso, do ponto de vista da tecnologia de baterias, por um lado, as baterias de lítio-fosfato de ferro são favorecidas pelo mercado devido às suas vantagens em economia e segurança. De janeiro a novembro deste ano, a capacidade instalada de baterias de lítio-fosfato de ferro no mercado chinês atingiu 64,8 GWh, que foi superior à capacidade instalada de 63,3 GWh de baterias ternárias pela primeira vez.
Vale ressaltar que a vantagem de custo das baterias de fosfato de ferro e lítio também atraiu a atenção e o favor de muitas grandes empresas automobilísticas em todo o mundo, incluindo Tesla, Volkswagen, Daimler, GM, Ford, Hyundai e outras empresas internacionais de automóveis convencionais. Todos eles indicaram que introduziriam baterias de lítio-fosfato de ferro, e empresas de baterias como LG New Energy e SKI também estão acelerando a implantação de baterias de lítio-fosfato de ferro.
Liu Yanlong pointed out that under the background of the reform of the global automobile industry and the tightening of carbon emission policies, the pace of electrification of mainstream car companies has accelerated, and the energy storage industry will also enter a stage of large-scale development. "Based on this judgment, the expansion of power lithium-ion batteries has also entered the fast lane. The domestic and foreign leading battery companies have all expanded their production by hundreds of GWh this year. In the future, the market demand for upstream materials of power lithium-ion batteries will also be 'rising all boats'. .We predict that the TWh era of power and energy storage battery demand will arrive before 2025."
Power lithium-ion battery "price surge" followed closely
The hot spot parallel to the expansion of production is the tide of price increases. Not long ago, the "battery shortage" of power lithium-ion batteries has not dissipated, and the topic of price increases has pushed the power lithium-ion battery industry to the forefront. Recently, many mainstream power lithium-ion battery companies such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Penghui Energy have issued price increase letters. According to media reports, due to the rising downstream demand for electric vehicles and energy storage, at the beginning of next year, the price of cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells will increase again by 5 percent -15 percent .
Desde o início deste ano, as matérias-primas upstream de baterias de íon de lítio- também aumentaram. Os dados mostram que o carbonato de lítio a 40,000 yuan/ton em 2020 agora subiu para 210,000/ton; o hexafluorofosfato de lítio aumentou de 100,000 yuan/ton em 2020 para 550,000/ton; o eletrólito também aumentou de 40,000 yuan/ton em 2020 para 120,000/ton; O PVDF subiu de 80,000/ton em 2020 para 500,000/ton; O VC aumentou de 200,000/ton em 2020 para 400,000/ton.
Wu Feng, acadêmico da Academia Chinesa de Engenharia e professor do Instituto de Tecnologia de Pequim, enfatizou que, impulsionado pelo aumento nas vendas de veículos de nova energia e a demanda por baterias de lítio-íon, a demanda por vários materiais para baterias de íon de lítio- também aumentou significativamente desde o início deste ano, como carbonato de lítio e hidróxido de lítio. , cátodos, ânodos, separadores, eletrólitos, hexafluorofosfato de lítio, etc. os preços geralmente subiram e alguns materiais subiram cinco ou seis vezes. A tensão entre oferta e demanda tornou-se proeminente, causando grande pressão de custos para as empresas de baterias e não é propícia para a indústria de veículos de nova energia. A demanda por redução geral de custos.
Regarding the reasons for the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Vehicle Venture Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Fund, analyzed three reasons. First of all, the quantitative easing brought about by the once-in-a-century epidemic in 2020 will bring about the inflation of global commodities. In the field of power lithium-ion batteries, it is inevitable that global energy prices and mineral prices have risen. Second, the sudden change in the supply and demand relationship and the insufficient supply of upstream materials for power lithium-ion batteries have led to a gradual increase in supply prices. Third, during the adjustment period of the industrial chain, the previous price reductions and delays by OEMs and battery factories on upstream material companies have led to frustrations in the motivation of upstream suppliers to expand production, and now it has evolved into a "retaliatory" price increase.
Wu Feng said that in the long run, lithium battery materials will face resource shortages, as well as nickel, cobalt and other resources, and the industry must take precautions. After years of development, my country's new energy vehicle and power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a critical period.
Fang Jianhua emphasized that my country's new energy vehicle industry has gone through three stages. The first stage is the savage rise stage from 2010 to 2016; the second stage is the adjustment and reshuffle stage from 2017 to 2020. A large number of companies are in this stage. Closing down; the third stage is the rapid growth stage starting in 2021.
Do ponto de vista da cadeia industrial, devido à escassez e ao impacto da concorrência internacional, a relação de oferta e demanda será tensa por muito tempo para o upstream de cobalto, níquel, lítio e outros recursos minerais de power lítio{{0} } baterias de íon. Materiais positivos e negativos intermediários, eletrólitos, diafragmas, etc., são afetados principalmente pela produção insuficiente em um curto período de tempo e alcançarão um equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda em 1-2 anos. Para a fábrica de baterias de íon-lítio de energia a jusante, a demanda real atual não corresponde à saída existente, a saída efetiva é insuficiente e o planejamento existente excede em muito as expectativas.
Pensamento frio sobre o frenesi da expansão da bateria de lítio
Judging from the expansion plans of major power lithium-ion batteries, this round of expansion can be described as "crazy". Under this trend, we are asked to think coldly.
Judging from the 128.3GWh installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries in my country's market from January to November, the market share of the top ten installed capacity exceeds 92 percent . Among them, the total installed capacity of CATL is about 65.93GWh, accounting for 51.39 percent of the month, and the total installed capacity of other companies is about 62GWh. In the face of such a huge expansion plan in the future, will the power lithium-ion battery industry chain have such a huge production demand?
"my country's new energy vehicles will have a compound growth rate of more than 30 percent in the future. This year is 3.4 million, next year is expected to be 5.1 million, and it will reach 9 million by 2025. This is a basic certainty issue." Fang Jianhua roughly According to calculations, if it is inferred from the number of 9 million new energy vehicles, the total demand for power lithium-ion batteries is only about 600GWh. In addition, even considering the demand for new energy vehicle batteries in overseas markets, the total planned volume of 2500GWh is in excess. "On the one hand, we need to think coldly when the industry is hot, and on the other hand, we need to consider the real demand, whether there is a mature technology behind the expansion, whether the management ability can keep up, and whether the supply chain can guarantee ."
Fang Jianhua said that the battery factory should consider at least these five factors when expanding production: the first real demand. "If my country's new energy vehicles reach 18 million by 2030. At present, except for the Ningde era, whether other battery companies can achieve a 5 percent share is already considerable. With the market share of power lithium-ion batteries unchanged, 10 million vehicles. The proportion of 5 percent of electric vehicles is only 500,000, and the installed capacity is only about 30GWh. And this is only obtained by competing with CATL, BYD, and foreign companies." In Fang Jianhua's view, the company is expanding In production, understanding the real needs is crucial.
Em segundo lugar, se a estabilidade do processo técnico pode suportar a rápida expansão da produção. A fase de escalada após a expansão da produção de baterias de -íon de lítio é um processo doloroso que requer muitos recursos humanos, financeiros e materiais. Portanto, a estabilidade da tecnologia de processo também é particularmente importante.
Third, the management level. Fang Jianhua emphasized, "There are not enough people involved in the management of remote factories. Once the management is not in place, the consequences will be huge."
Fourth, whether the supply chain can be guaranteed. "The one who has the supplier wins the world. In the current supply chain, the company must advance and retreat together with the supply chain when expanding production. There must be a strong supply chain guarantee system."
Fifth, financial capital security. Fang Jianhua further explained that the blessing of the local government and market capital is only temporary. The company has not formed its own hematopoietic capacity, and without sufficient profits, it will not last in the process of expansion. "If there is no sustainable funding guarantee, this blind expansion will eventually become a 'gray rhino'."
